Candice Dawson’s filly is a long shot but the odds of 6-1 a place makes most appeal
01 November 2022 - 15:04
byDAVID MOLLETT
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To say the waters have been muddied for the Betway Summer Cup after last Saturday’s Allied Steelrode Charity Mile is an understatement.
Safe Passage — sent off at 33-10 for the race — has drifted from 3-1 to 4-1 in latest Cup betting with bookmaker Lance Michael. World Sports Betting also quote the Mike de Kock inmate Safe Passage at 7-2.
So, with uncertainty about some of the top horses, this is the ideal time for Business Day racing followers to continue the good run they have enjoyed this year with ante-post bets and back one of the long shots.
In February, readers were advised to back Sparkling Water — then 33-1 — for the Durban July. The De Kock inmate won SA's most famous race by three lengths.
Then 40-1 chance, Imperial Ruby, was the tip for the Gold Cup and the gelding only got collared close home by Shangani.
The tip for the Summer Cup — being sponsored for the first time by Betway and due to be run at Turffontein on November 26 — is Candice Dawson’s filly, Perfect Witness.
She is a 33-1 shot with both Michael and World Sports Betting, but it is the 6-1 a place which makes most appeal.
The four-year-old runs in Saturday’s Victory Moon Stakes with Muzi Yeni booked for the ride. A good showing will see the filly’s odds shorten markedly for the Cup.
It is worth remembering that Perfect Witness ran second behind Puerto Manzano (second in the Charity Mile) in the Jubilee Handicap and her trainer confirmed on Tuesday that the filly needed the run when beaten by Irish Tractor last month. The latter ran a creditable sixth in the Mile from the worst draw.
One would describe Safe Passage’s first run since the Durban July as an “OK performance” with last season’s Daily News 2000 winner finishing just under four lengths behind Bingwa. It will have blown away the cobwebs for the Cup when Yeni may be in the saddle.
Muzi was on MK’s Pride in the Charity Mile and the former Paul Peter inmate finished in eighth place about six lengths behind Bingwa. Little surprise he has drifted to 25-1 from 14-1 in Cup betting.
Another drifter is Rain In Holland whose last place behind Bon Vivant in a 1,400m pinnacle race left her many supporters in a state of shock. However, last season’s Triple Tiara winner never appealed as a bet on three counts. She hadn’t raced since April, the distance was too short and she’s had a throat operation.
The daughter of Duke Of Marmalade is out to 12-1 (from 7-1) with Michael in Cup betting and is the same price with World Sports Betting. There’s going to be no stampede to take that price.
After his excellent second on Saturday, Puerto Manzano has been trimmed from 33-1 to 12-1 and the Argentinian-bred has to be on everyone’s shortlist, especially if Keagan De Melo retains the ride.
That said, the gelding is not easy to catch right. He won the Jubilee Handicap but then faded badly in the Durban July and beat only two home. He falls into the category of “comes with risks attached”.
Stablemate Bingwa has shortened to 16-1 for the Cup but will have more on his plate next time. Still, one wouldn’t be surprised if he rose to the big occasion once again.
Support our award-winning journalism. The Premium package (digital only) is R30 for the first month and thereafter you pay R129 p/m now ad-free for all subscribers.
Perfect Witness looks worth a punt for Summer Cup
Candice Dawson’s filly is a long shot but the odds of 6-1 a place makes most appeal
To say the waters have been muddied for the Betway Summer Cup after last Saturday’s Allied Steelrode Charity Mile is an understatement.
Safe Passage — sent off at 33-10 for the race — has drifted from 3-1 to 4-1 in latest Cup betting with bookmaker Lance Michael. World Sports Betting also quote the Mike de Kock inmate Safe Passage at 7-2.
So, with uncertainty about some of the top horses, this is the ideal time for Business Day racing followers to continue the good run they have enjoyed this year with ante-post bets and back one of the long shots.
In February, readers were advised to back Sparkling Water — then 33-1 — for the Durban July. The De Kock inmate won SA's most famous race by three lengths.
Then 40-1 chance, Imperial Ruby, was the tip for the Gold Cup and the gelding only got collared close home by Shangani.
The tip for the Summer Cup — being sponsored for the first time by Betway and due to be run at Turffontein on November 26 — is Candice Dawson’s filly, Perfect Witness.
She is a 33-1 shot with both Michael and World Sports Betting, but it is the 6-1 a place which makes most appeal.
The four-year-old runs in Saturday’s Victory Moon Stakes with Muzi Yeni booked for the ride. A good showing will see the filly’s odds shorten markedly for the Cup.
It is worth remembering that Perfect Witness ran second behind Puerto Manzano (second in the Charity Mile) in the Jubilee Handicap and her trainer confirmed on Tuesday that the filly needed the run when beaten by Irish Tractor last month. The latter ran a creditable sixth in the Mile from the worst draw.
One would describe Safe Passage’s first run since the Durban July as an “OK performance” with last season’s Daily News 2000 winner finishing just under four lengths behind Bingwa. It will have blown away the cobwebs for the Cup when Yeni may be in the saddle.
Muzi was on MK’s Pride in the Charity Mile and the former Paul Peter inmate finished in eighth place about six lengths behind Bingwa. Little surprise he has drifted to 25-1 from 14-1 in Cup betting.
Another drifter is Rain In Holland whose last place behind Bon Vivant in a 1,400m pinnacle race left her many supporters in a state of shock. However, last season’s Triple Tiara winner never appealed as a bet on three counts. She hadn’t raced since April, the distance was too short and she’s had a throat operation.
The daughter of Duke Of Marmalade is out to 12-1 (from 7-1) with Michael in Cup betting and is the same price with World Sports Betting. There’s going to be no stampede to take that price.
After his excellent second on Saturday, Puerto Manzano has been trimmed from 33-1 to 12-1 and the Argentinian-bred has to be on everyone’s shortlist, especially if Keagan De Melo retains the ride.
That said, the gelding is not easy to catch right. He won the Jubilee Handicap but then faded badly in the Durban July and beat only two home. He falls into the category of “comes with risks attached”.
Stablemate Bingwa has shortened to 16-1 for the Cup but will have more on his plate next time. Still, one wouldn’t be surprised if he rose to the big occasion once again.
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