From David Einhorn: For years I believed that I didn’t need to take a view on the market or the economy because I considered myself to be a "bottom up" investor. Having my eyes open to the big picture doesn’t mean abandoning stock picking, but it does mean managing the long-short exposure ratio more actively, worrying about what may be brewing in certain industries, and when appropriate, buying some just-in-case insurance for foreseeable macro risks even if they are hard to time. As an investor my job is to figure out what will happen rather than what should happen. People say things in the market that they don’t believe to be true both in promoting stocks and rejecting stocks. Investing and poker require similar skills. I don’t play a lot of hands. But I don’t just wait for the perfect hand. They don’t come up often enough. I try to pick out one or two people at the table I want to play against or who I sense don’t want to play against me. [But] on any given day a good investor or ...

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