Croatia’s ruling party heads for win without majority in snap poll

Zagreb — Croatia’s ruling HDZ party is on track to win Wednesday’s parliamentary election but with fewer seats than before and without a majority, according to an Ipsos exit poll published on local Nova TV.

HDZ has won 58 seats in the 151-seat parliament, the exit poll suggested, less than the 66 it had previously but more than the opposition coalition led by the Social Democrats (SDP) which is expected to have won 44 seats.

The right-wing Homeland Movement is set to come third with 13 seats.

The outcome, if confirmed, is likely to usher in a period of political instability in the EU member state as the main parties seek to forge alliances with other factions with differing political views.

High inflation and corruption scandals in the past eight years dented support for the HDZ, which has dominated Croatian politics since independence in 1991.

The streets of the capital, Zagreb, were quiet on Wednesday as voters lined up to cast their ballots on a national holiday. 

The State Election Commission said turnout by 4.30pm was 50.6% compared with 34.4% at that same time in the last parliamentary election, held in 2020. Polling stations closed at 7pm.

“I am an optimist regarding this election. The global security situation has never been more tense. We need to have responsible people running Croatia,” Prime Minister Andrej Plenkovic said after casting his ballot.

Plenkovic’s main rival is President Zoran Milanovic, who said he would resign to become the head of government if the SDP takes power with help from other smaller parties.

A Social Democrat-led coalition could change the country’s stance on major issues such as support for Ukraine in its war with Russia and strain otherwise good relations with EU partners. Milanovic opposes help for Ukraine.

“I expect to talk to everyone who is against theft,” Milanovic said after casting the ballot. “EU funds will be used more and there will be no theft.”

“Regardless of the final distribution of seats, it is likely the parliament will be more fragmented and coalition negotiations will drag on for longer,” said Mario Bikarski, East and Central Europe analyst at risk intelligence company Verisk Maplecroft.

“A minority government, either HDZ- or SDP-led, would be even more unstable and unlikely to last its full term.”

Reuters