EFF could double its support in 2019, says IRR
An Institute of Race Relations poll shows job creation, not land, is the priority issue for voters
The EFF could double its support in the 2019 general elections by shaving 10% off the ANC’s support base.
This is the finding of the latest survey released by the Institute of Race Relations.
"The ANC’s strategic decision to nullify the EFF by attempting to pander to and adopt its policies has backfired dramatically and around 10% of alienated black ANC voters are now being won over by the EFF on the back of its ability to dominate the ANC‚" writes IRR head of politics and governance Gareth van Onselen.
The ANC looks set to get just more than half the vote (52%)‚ the DA 23% and the EFF 13% in 2019. In 2014 the ruling party received 62% of the vote‚ the DA 22% and the EFF 6%.
"The EFF has used the lack of any compelling vision on any of the biggest issues on the part of the ANC — decline‚ economic regression and ubiquitous corruption — to dominate the national debate. The EFF’s ability to use land reform in this way — both to drive national debate and to dominate the ANC — has seen its share of the vote spike‚" Van Onselen writes.
Victory Research conducted the poll for the IRR between August 22 and September 4. Using random telephone numbers‚ 978 people were questioned.
The issues that matter the most to participants were jobs and unemployment (47%)‚ drugs and drug abuse (23%)‚ and crime and insecurity (20%). Land reform was the least of their concerns with 6%. These concerns differed little between rural and urban survey participants.
There is a "public debate vacuum" on the issues that matter the most to voters, says Van Onselen.
"Thus‚ land reform — a problem that ranks lowest among voters as a priority — has been allowed to overwhelm national debate and‚ driven by the EFF‚ be used to frame the ANC as subservient to the EFF’s direction and programme of action."
Meanwhile‚ it seems there will be no majority party in Gauteng next year as the poll found 46% support for the ANC‚ 28% for the DA and 17% for the EFF in the province.
"The base of the EFF’s support comes from Gauteng. The province is South Africa’s most populous and the 17% the EFF has secured in Gauteng will have gone some considerable way towards driving up its national percentage of the vote."