Contrary to the fears of some, Jacob Zuma cannot lead the ANC after the end of 2017. But it is not clear anyone else can either, unless the party’s factions make a deal to share leadership positions. As the ANC conference draws nearer, the chances that it can hold a leadership election whose result will be accepted by the losers seem the slimmest yet. It is not even clear that it can hold a conference that complies with its constitution. But if it does not choose new leaders, it will be saddled with a leadership that violates that constitution and can be thrown out by the courts. This may make a compromise the only way out, however much the factions may want to avoid it. Confident ANC claims that the conference will go ahead and elect a leadership do not seem credible. Disputes over the way branch delegates were chosen are rife and several provincial leaderships face legal challenges. So deep is the crisis that the campaign teams of both Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma and Cyril Ramaphosa cl...

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