If Cyril Ramaphosa wins the ANC election race in December, it is likely to be celebrated with a relief rally in the markets and a burst of business confidence, leading to better growth in 2018. But uncertainty remains over his ability to exercise independent leadership. The concern is whether the fact that he will be beholden to Cosatu for its electoral support will prevent economic policy shifting as much to the centre as business might wish.However, under Ramaphosa’s New Deal, SA’s growth model will remain much as it is now: state-led and SOE-driven. There is no acknowledgement that this model has failed in SA and that the private sector needs to be unleashed to become the engine of growth. Moreover, SA’s number one focus under Ramaphosa will not be on achieving faster growth but on creating "decent jobs". Who can forget Trevor Manuel’s view on the decent-jobs debate when he said in his 2009 budget speech: "Jobs are bloody hard to come by.... All jobs, and the more adjectives you ...

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