In floor space, the African Mining Indaba in Cape Town is dominated by engineers, consultants and suppliers. Invisible is a scratch-patch of worry populated mostly by South Africans. Money is pouring into Burkina Faso and Mali, countries run by juntas. But in South Africa the wheels are coming off.

January’s run rate (or “tempo”) of state-owned Transnet Freight Rail is about 42Mt on its critical north corridor that supplies export coal to Richards Bay. Even after a 10-day maintenance shutdown in November, that’s a fifth lower than last year’s total, which represented a 30-year low in performance and had the industry sucking air...

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