The noise and the fury around the ANC leadership race is receding, if only just a bit. Things are becoming clearer. Patterns are emerging. It’s becoming easier to identify who is sprinting ahead to win the top six positions — and who will be embarrassed come December 16.

President Cyril Ramaphosa, unless something catastrophic happens, will win hands down, as my colleague Natasha Marrian informed FM readers (https://www.businesslive.co.za/fm/opinion/state-of-play/2022-11-03-natasha-marrian-why-ramaphosa-is-going-to-wipe-the-floor-with-zweli-mkhize/) weeks ago. His challenger, Zweli Mkhize, is addressing every single crowd he can muster, but he still has the support of only the KwaZulu-Natal branches of the party. Ramaphosa has six provincial structures supporting him. Even if Mkhize receives support from the Free State and the Western Cape — the two outstanding provinces — he is still not assured of victory...

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