ECONOMY WATCH: Empty coffers and a slippery slope
There are two big economic events to watch out for in May: a meeting of the monetary policy committee and a credit ratings review by S&P Global Ratings
There are two big economic events to watch out for in May: a meeting of the monetary policy committee (MPC) and a credit ratings review by S&P Global Ratings.Despite the uncertainty created by the Covid-19 pandemic, the outcome of both events is fairly predictable. The MPC will cut rates, probably significantly, on May 21, and S&P will downgrade SA’s ratings by a full notch on May 22.At the MPC’s March meeting, a week before SA was placed under lockdown, the Reserve Bank cut the repo rate by 100 basis points, taking it down to 5.25%, the lowest level in six years. Among major emerging markets, only Turkey has cut rates by more this year.The Bank says it still has space to respond to the pandemic, given that it expects both headline and core inflation to fall to the bottom half of the target range this year (close to 3%) and stay well within the range over the medium term."The main driver of low inflation this year is fuel prices, following a collapse in world oil prices," says the B...
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