Even if Zuma goes, 2019 is too soon for ANC to regain people's trust

The decline in support in the August 3 local government elections has many within the ANC in a panic.

Three positions have emerged: a demand for President Jacob Zuma to step down, a call for an early elective conference and a proposal for a consultative conference.

Each of the three positions represent what those making the calls think is the ailment from which the ruling party needs to be cured.

This is due to the failure of the national executive committee (NEC) to reflect honestly about the root causes of the crisis within the ANC and the loss at the polls. Let’s deal with each proposal in turn.

#OccupyLuthuliHouse, which is a group of ANC Youth League members, caused a stir on Monday when they attempted to march on Luthuli House, the ANC headquarters in Johannesburg.

They had announced on the Friday before that they would stage a sit-in at Luthuli House to demand, among other things, the resignation of Zuma and all NEC members.

In their view, Zuma and the NEC represent all that is wrong with the ANC. If they go, the ANC would have a better chance of renewing itself and of being restored to its former glory.

They propose that a council of stalwarts would take over the reins at the point where Zuma and the NEC depart and that, under the stewardship of the elders, the party could hold a credible elective conference.

#OccupyLuthuliHouse has clearly misread the situation. What makes them think that Zuma and the NEC would see their demand more favourably than those who have made the call before them, including stalwarts such as Ahmed Kathrada?

This ongoing call for Zuma to be recalled is based on the erroneous belief that Thabo Mbeki’s recall was a matter of principle rather than a matter of expedience. That is a fallacy. No amount of principle will precipitate Zuma’s recall.

This leads into the second proposal — calling an early conference: The ANCYL was the first to call for an early conference. In their view, it is important to expedite the transfer of power from the current crop of leaders to those who will lead the party into the 2019 national polls and the future.

The ANCYL are avid defenders of Zuma. This call should not be seen as a call for his removal. If anything, the league wants to fast-track Zuma’s succession plan — which means the instalment of a top six that is sympathetic to the causes and interests of the lame-duck president would be malleable to his and his cronies’ whims after he leaves office.

An early conference would not strengthen the anti-graft, ethical and moral grouping within the ruling party. This grouping is disparate and lacks coherence. It is only identifiable as individuals and leaders who deplore the politics of patronage and corruption that have crippled the effectiveness of the party and weakened the government.

Such a conference would lay bare their lack of strategy and planning. It would reveal that they do not have an alternative proposal for leadership and the requisite groundswell of support to replace the status quo with a new era.

Hence proposal number three: a consultative conference. The ANC in Gauteng has rejected outright the call for an elective conference and have joined the chorus for a consultative conference together with the SACP.

A consultative conference would provide the anti-Zuma grouping with the platform to lobby for a change of guard and to garner the support of the broad constituency in the ANC as an organisation.

It would allow them to build a coherent alternative vision of leadership and governance rather than that presented by the Zuma epoch and ready them to meet the 2017 succession showdown with formidable resolve.

But while the various voices and interests within the ANC dither, making public pronouncements in an attempt to sway and embolden the hitherto Zuma loyalists in the NEC, the reality is that whatever proposal wins, it is unlikely to be sufficient to arrest the runaway train that is heading for a cliff.

Between now and the 2019 elections, the ANC should build more credibility and legitimacy in the eyes of the public.

The culture of undermining the rule of law and acting irrationally has been so entrenched. The government just lost another court case this week at the Constitutional Court, where Robert McBride succeeded in his bid against Police Minister Nathi Nhleko.

Zuma has already placed his government on a collision course. Members of his cabinet are publicly opposing each other, ministers such as Mosebenzi Zwane are using their positions to do the bidding of outsiders, and he has emboldened his allies to use organs of state and parastatals to further their narrow interests.

The period between the 2017 elective conference and the 2019 general election will not be sufficient for the ANC to regain the trust of the masses — even if the broom sweeps the Zumarites out. — Sowetan