The Covid models muddle
Can scientific models be trusted? The gap between expectation and outcome has raised questions about the projections that have shaped lockdowns and disrupted economies around the globe
The early figures read like a dystopian, end-of-the-world movie script. As the Covid-19 pandemic was taking hold, epidemiological models predicted 350,000 deaths in SA without a lockdown, 96,000 in Sweden (26,000 under a best-case lockdown scenario), 2-million in the US this year (peaking in July), and 500,000 in the UK.Thankfully, these models are wrong. SA has so far had about 500 deaths from Covid-19 — a number that is, however, expected to rise exponentially for months. There have been about 4,029 deaths in Sweden, where death rates have been in decline since April 22; about 100,000 in the US, where daily figures have dropped since April 15; and about 37,000 in the UK, where daily numbers have declined since April 9.This difference between expectation and outcome has raised questions about the scientific models that have shaped lockdowns around the world and left economies reeling.In the UK, the Imperial College London model that influenced the government decision to lock down ...
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