JAN-JAN JOUBERT: Why it is impossible to call the ANC presidential vote
'As the delegates head to Nasrec, there are four interrelated aspects that ensure analysts are loath to call a result too early'
By now, we have all seen the numbers in the final stretch leading up to the ANC's elective conference in Johannesburg this week. Deputy President Cyril Ramaphosa's CR17 campaign holds a handy lead over Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma's NDZ hopefuls. Yet there is no guarantee that he has it in the bag. As the delegates head to Nasrec, there are four interrelated aspects that ensure analysts are loath to call a result too early.These involve the non-binding nature of the branch decision, vote-buying, the secret ballot and the type of delegate attending the conference.First, the branch's preference is not binding on the delegate - not even formally. This we learnt in 2007 when enraged phone calls reached Western Cape journalists from a specific ANC branch on the Cape Flats which, in the interests of not reigniting fury past, shall for the moment remain nameless. The branch members had seen off their delegate on the long bus ride north, believing he was going to cast his ballot for Thabo Mbeki, ...
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