SA's economy will tank if graduates don't enter labour market in 2017
Economic models suggest that South Africa's GDP would fall, inequality would deepen and unemployment would rise
There is a real risk that some of South Africa’s universities will not see out the 2016 academic year which ends in November. The ongoing “fees must fall” protests have seen classes disrupted at some institutions, and there are fears that exams won’t be written. What might a total shutdown mean for the country’s labour market in 2017? To find out, we conducted an analysis using a model designed for economic research by the University of Pretoria in collaboration with the global Centre of Policy Studies. The model allowed us to isolate and measure the impact of a large reduction in graduates entering the labour market in 2017 against a “business as usual” baseline scenario. The results were extremely worrying. In the worst case scenario, assumed in our modelling to be a 90% reduction in graduates entering the labour market, 2017 would be a bleak year. South Africa’s GDP would fall dramatically, with the economy shedding around R5.6 billion. Investments would plummet. South Africa pro...
Would you like to comment on this article?
Sign up (it's quick and free) or sign in now.
Please read our Comment Policy before commenting.
Subscribe now to unlock this article.
Support BusinessLIVE’s award-winning journalism for R129 per month (digital access only).
There’s never been a more important time to support independent journalism in SA. Our subscription packages now offer an ad-free experience for readers.
Cancel anytime.
Questions? Email helpdesk@businesslive.co.za or call 0860 52 52 00. Got a subscription voucher? Redeem it now.