SAM MKOKELI: Possible Godongwana exit exposes another Ramaphosa flank

Enoch Godongwana, the finance minister, has written most of the ANC’s policy resolutions in the past 15 years.

He was part of the team that pushed back against the call to nationalise the mines 10 years ago. He has been credited with “saving” the Nasrec conference five years ago when some delegates wanted the party to adopt land expropriation without compensation as policy. He took over the role of chair of the session and smothered the fire by suggesting a wording formulation that embraced the need for land redistribution but only if it did not harm the economy.

He has been part of the debate around the nationalisation of the central bank. He “supports” the idea as long it doesn’t hurt the economy or empower a minority of speculative shareholders.

Now he is in a spot of bother, with his government and ANC role on the line. On Thursday he said he will step down if he is charged.

He would have to step down as finance minister and as a prominent figure in the ANC national executive committee. That would have serious consequences for President Cyril Ramaphosa and his campaign for a second term.

Godongwana is one of the people closest to Ramaphosa. As finance minister, he is the second-most powerful person in the cabinet. He is an influential politician in the Ramaphosa camp. With all the economic headwinds, he has, more than most, the ability to play the policy game in a way that manages both party politics and market jitters.

If Godongwana is charged, Ramaphosa will be more exposed and politically vulnerable than he is now. Godongwana has an air of arrogance that allows him to talk roughly with both his foes and allies. This means he can play horse-trading games with ease.

He is part of a group dubbed the “Chris Hani cabal”. It’s a loose team of politicians who were born in the Cala-eNgcobo area of the Eastern Cape but who owe their political history to activism in Gauteng. They are ministers Gwede Mantashe, Mondli Gungubele and Godongwana, with Eastern Cape premier Oscar Mabuyane a loose attachment to the trio.

It is a group that forces Ramaphosa’s agenda and interests in the party. They were influential in the adoption of the step aside rule, when the radical economic transformation faction resisted the idea. Ironically, Mabuyane, Mantashe and now Godongwana have been close to being victims of this rule.

Losing one of his most trusted backers will make Ramaphosa more vulnerable. The coat of invincibility has never been his thing, but even his inner cabinet may be more incoherent without the person whose role has been to stitch together tearing fibres in the party’s proxy battles.