ROB ROSE: Can our economy survive an extended lockdown?
The Paternoster Group reckons that SA’s lockdown will probably be extended. But sooner or later, we’ll have to find a compromise
Were we allowed to go to a pub, there’d be two questions dominating every discussion: just how long will the lockdown last, and can our economy survive it? (Actually, there’s a third question, but no-one knows quite what went wrong with Fikile Mbalula — it’s a mystery for the ages).
On the lockdown, the smart money says it’ll be extended. Research this week by the Paternoster Group, a political risk consultancy headed by the redoubtable Richard Calland, puts the odds of the lockdown being extended at 50%. "To be successful, [a lockdown] needs to be coupled with the ‘Four T’ strategy of ‘Trace, Test, Track and Treat’ that the government has developed in the past fortnight ... [but it] hasn’t yet been able to roll out the programme in a manner that is cast sufficiently widely to achieve the main purpose of the lockdown," it warns.