Grim prospects for SA
But take heart, for things are always darkest before the dawn, writes Petri Redelinghuys
The SA investment community has been on the edge of its seat for some time in anticipation of a sovereign credit rating downgrade from Moody’s ratings agency.As is well known by now, Moody’s is the last of three ratings agencies that still considers SA sovereign debt as investment grade.Much has been written about the consequences of a downgrade to subinvestment grade by Moody’s and by now most readers will know that if Moody’s downgrades our nation, SA government bonds will have to be excluded from a variety of global bond indices, so large international investment funds will be forced to divest from SA assets.There has been much chatter about how dire the consequences would be if this happens.Recently, though, things may have changed.The likelihood of being downgraded is now higher than ever. Moody’s has cut its 2020 growth forecast for SA to 0.4% from 0.7% because it considers SA as one of several countries that will have lower growth prospects in the wake of the Covid-19 pandemi...
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