The economy has entered its eighth recession since 1961, following a shocking contraction in the first quarter. This has upset the economic consensus, suggesting that the economy is in far greater distress than most realised. Real GDP (measured by production) decreased by 0.7% q/q seasonally adjusted and annualised in the first quarter of 2017, following a decrease of 0.3% in the fourth quarter of last year. (Two consecutive quarters of negative growth means that the economy is in a technical recession.) In fact, the economy has contracted in four of the previous eight quarters.

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