SA is set for a lucky reprieve in the form of another revenue overrun of more than R100bn for the third year in a row. As before, this welcome surprise has been mainly driven by the commodity boom, extended by the war in Ukraine, which has resulted in windfall corporate income taxes.

At the same time, much higher inflation than initially expected by the National Treasury’s conservative budget office has boosted nominal GDP growth — the anchor of all fiscal ratios...

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