BROKERS’ NOTES: Build coal stocks, sell Sanlam

Ashraf Mohamed, Cornerpiece Capital

BUY: Exxaro

First, it’s paid down its debt and its cash flows in the second half of the year will be a lot stronger than the first half. That will support the payment of a special dividend, despite the hiccup of a force majeure that we’re likely to experience for the next couple of weeks. Also, the average rand price of coal for the second half will be about 15% higher than the first half. On that basis, and the fact that it’s trading on a p:e of 3.8 times, it’s exceptionally cheap — especially in a market where there will be plenty of uncertainty in the coming months. Anyone else is going to be in trouble.

SELL: Sanlam

Insurance companies are generally dependent on market performance to support their valuations and need economic growth to support their bottom line, but we’re going into a recession in SA. I think that the insurance market where Sanlam plays is constantly being challenged by other financial services companies so its margins are constantly under attack. It’s been the best of the lot but it has cut all the fat that it can, so there’s not much room to manoeuvre. This means its downside risk is greater than Old Mutual or Momentum Metropolitan.