BROKERS’ NOTES: Buy Nedbank, sell Motus

Sven Forssman, head of equity sales at Kela Securities

BUY: Nedbank

We think Nedbank is a buy. The stock sits on a p:e of 8.37 times and a dividend yield of 7%. The bank’s 26% increase in interim headline earnings was achieved without much from the unwind in Covid-related provisions. Nedbank says it earns R1.6bn for every 100 basis points (bp) increase in interest rates. The lender expects a 75bp increase in interest rates for the rest of the year and another 75bp next year before we reach the top of the interest rate cycle. This translates to a pretax profit of around R2.2bn.  Importantly, the bank expects new business opportunities to arise from infrastructure, especially water and energy. Credit Suisse’s HOLT valuation methodology suggests 22% upside for Nedbank.

SELL: Motus

The tide is turning for the strong trend we have seen in SA for used cars and therefore our sell recommendation is Motus.  The used-car market has been booming since the pandemic as the car rental agencies did not buy the 50,000-70,000 cars they usually do and feed the older cars into the market. The result is that used cars have been selling for 20% above their retail values. However, we think this dynamic will change in the next few months. The worldwide shortage of microchips has also eased and we expect original equipment manufacturers to become more aggressive in their pricing. An owner of a private leasing business tells us that he is trying to sell his business as he expects used cars to come under pressure.