What will happen at Nasrec in the next five days

Times may change, faces too, and the theme for this year is likely to be electricity rather than land, but the sequence of events at ANC conferences remains fairly predictable.

It’s no different for the conference which starts on Friday, though it should be said that some pretty significant changes have been made to the voting process, which starts on Saturday.

Previously, delegates voted for all of the top six officials at once, but in some instances in the past this has meant that the winning faction takes it all while the losing faction has to fall.

In 2017, however, the ANC was so split down the middle that, by an accident or by some clandestine design (some swear to this day that the result was rigged), just over half of the elected national executive committee (NEC) — made up of the top six and 80 additional members — supported President Cyril Ramaphosa, while just under half opposed him.

This weekend, however, the deputy president and deputy secretary-general will be nominated only once the president, secretary-general, chair and treasurer-general have been announced, so that, theoretically, the losing presidential contender could be nominated for deputy chair, and a losing secretary-general for the deputy position.

That way a bid for the high positions doesn’t become an all-or-nothing game; some say this could lead to unity in its purest form, theoretically at least.

Day 1: December 16

On Friday, ironically the Day of Reconciliation, most guests and journalists will arrive for the 8.30am start of the opening session, while delegates will march or meander into the large exhibition hall with tables and chairs in ANC colours, and take in their places in provincial formations. They will possibly sing songs in support of their chosen leadership candidates, campaigning and testing the strength of the support from the floor.

Phakama Ramaphosa, ixesha lisondele (“rise up, the time has arrived”) could still be the biggest hit.

With some luck there will only be an hour or two delay to the programme (usually due to accreditation backlogs, which may or may not stem from system crashes, power crashes, or generator diesel running out) before the interdenominational prayers, the singing of the national anthem, and the adoption of the conference rules and programme.

Ramaphosa is expected to deliver his political report in the two hours that follow, and hopefully it won’t take as long as when former president Thabo Mbeki spoke for more than three hours at the Polokwane conference in 2007, before Jacob Zuma defeated him to become the new ANC president.

There might be an attempt during the open session to raise an issue from the floor, such as a call for the amendment or scrapping of the rule that those who are charged with serious crimes and/or corruption should step aside from their positions. Party secretary-general Ace Magashule, for one, has been suspended from his position as a result of this rule, and he has been lobbying hard to make a comeback.

This issue might also be kicked to the closed session for discussing constitutional amendments later in the day, though that would lose the airtime it would have had in the open session.

After this the important but highly contested process of adopting the conference credentials will take place — behind closed doors. This will determine how many branch delegates from each province have turned up and will be eligible to vote. In a closely contested conference like this, a few votes could make a big difference. The credentials process has caused delays at previous conferences.

Other closed sessions will include the delivery of the organisational report, usually done by the secretary-general, but with Magashule suspended, deputy president David Mabuza will deliver this one.

Later on Friday night treasurer-general Paul Mashatile will deliver his financial report, and with the parlous state that the party’s kitty has been in during his term in that position, this could make for interesting reading, should any of it leak to the media.

Then there will be an open session, scheduled for 9.30pm (but it could also happen later) for any additional nominations from the conference floor (with a 25% threshold) for the positions of president, secretary-general, national chair and treasurer-general.

The original nominations process has already taken place through the branches, with Ramaphosa (2,037) and former health minister Zweli Mkhize (916) nominated for the top spot.

Day 2: December 17

On Saturday morning there will be messages of support from the leaders of parties that the ANC is friendly with, while voting for four out of the top six positions will start.

In the closed sessions that follow, reports on the strategy and tactics, organisational renewal, and elections will be presented to the plenary, before delegates break up into commissions to discuss policy issues. Some have argued that these issues need to be decided on first before the most suitable leaders are chosen to implement these, but policy issues have also become a way to fight proxy leadership battles and things are clearly going to happen all at the same time at this conference.

By Saturday night the first results of the voting will be available, and there will be additional nominations for the deputy president and deputy secretary-general positions, as well as for the 80-member NEC.

Day 3: December 18

By Sunday afternoon, the results of the elections for the last two of the top six positions will be announced — a crucial moment, since the position of the deputy president is hotly contested and important in terms of ANC succession politics. Voting for the NEC will continue overnight.

Day 4: December 19

Monday will mostly be characterised by closed sessions to adopt the finalised reports on organisational renewal, constitutional amendments, and resolutions on policy matters. For the media, there will be press conferences as soon as these documents are finalised.

The results of the rest of the NEC’s elections will be announced overnight on Monday, or even on Tuesday, depending on the speed of the process and the counting.

Day 5: December 20

In the past the counting of votes and the announcement of the 80 additional NEC members have continued even after the closing of the conference, scheduled for Tuesday afternoon, by whoever was elected president. As to who will deliver this closing address is one of the hottest topics of discussion in ANC WhatsApp groups across the country.