Ramaphosa: Is this the end?

What happens, asked former president Thabo Mbeki, if President Cyril Ramaphosa is found wanting over the alleged theft of foreign currency at his Phala Phala game farm? 

That question is about to be answered. 

It is a question that can only be answered by the ANC. 

South Africa is at a political crossroads — will Ramaphosa resign after the damning recommendation from the independent panel into whether he should face an impeachment inquiry?

The panel, headed by former chief justice Sandile Ngcobo, found that there was prima facie evidence that Ramaphosa violated the constitution and the country’s anti-corruption laws and that he had committed serious misconduct by exposing himself to a situation involving a conflict between his official responsibilities and his private business.

It was an astounding finding. Particularly as there was no public money involved and Ramaphosa had provided a detailed explanation of the $580,000 that had landed in a sofa at his Limpopo game farm in December 2020, while he was out of the country on official business. 

While Ramaphosa’s allies on Wednesday night were reeling from the finding, arguing that there must have been bias on the part of the three-member panel of judges, the fact is parliament has a report before it that effectively recommends that Ramaphosa face impeachment. 

Ramaphosa himself has said that he would resign if any investigation found that he had done wrong regarding the Phala Phala matter. 

On Wednesday night, the ANC’s top four leaders including Ramaphosa’s deputy David Mabuza, treasurer Paul Mashatile and chair Gwede Mantashe were locked in a meeting to discuss the way forward. The FM has seen a notification for a special national executive committee (NEC) meeting set to take place on Thursday, when the ANC’s top brass will decide on its approach to the report — to be tabled in parliament on December 6 — and also very likely debate on calls for Ramaphosa to step aside. 

Ramaphosa, it should be noted, has long stated that he would step aside should he be found on the wrong side of the law on the Phala Phala matter. His allies on Wednesday night despaired about whether this would be his automatic response to the panel’s finding or whether he would take advice on the way forward. 

Ramaphosa for his part for the first time made known his own take on the Phala Phala matter — which has been driven by his opponents up to now. His submission to the panel was widely leaked, no doubt in anticipation of the release of the panel’s report late on Wednesday evening. 

In his submission, Ramaphosa asks the panel not to take the Phala Phala matter any further. He explains that the $580,000 stored in a sofa at his farm in Limpopo was a result of the sale of buffalo and that the money was not banked as his usual farm manager was on leave at the time of the sale. He says the farm — an entity from which he derives no financial benefit — was not under the protection of the state at the time of the burglary and theft because he did not want to waste state resources on a property he hardly frequented. 

He poured cold water on evidence provided to the panel by opposition parties the African Transformation Movement and the EFF, denying that the videos and maps they had provided were even shot at his Limpopo game farm. 

But the Ngcobo panel viewed things somewhat differently, placing considerable weight on the evidence provided by the opposition and finding that Ramaphosa may indeed have an ethical case to answer before parliament. The Hawks and the public protector are yet to conclude their investigations into the Phala Phala matter. 

Politically the recommendation emboldens Ramaphosa’s enemies in the ANC — of whom there are many — and also hobbles his bid for a second term at the helm of the ruling party.

The NEC on Thursday is likely to hear calls from the remnants of the “radical economic transformation” faction aligned to former president Jacob Zuma for Ramaphosa to step aside — but this group may be supported by the more moderate sections of the party, aligned to treasurer Paul Mashatile, given the damage the affair could inflict on the party’s electoral prospects in 2024.

Ramaphosa’s refrain that the ANC stands as “accused number 1” could return to haunt him as he is now in the hot seat at the NEC meeting set to decide his fate — if he does not resign and the party defends him in parliament, it may cause damage in the eyes of the electorate. 

But before this, Ramaphosa himself could throw in the towel — after all, he has been fighting an uphill battle to reform a party largely irredeemable given the extent of the rot in its ranks. 

The ANC’s elective conference in December could see former health minister Zweli Mkhize challenged by the likes of Mashatile, should Ramaphosa withdraw from the race. 

Mabuza could take the reins in the meantime — he is not even in the running for the presidency in the run-up to the ANC conference, but a short stint as an acting president could guarantee him the pension and perks of a former president well beyond his tenure. Mashatile, or whoever emerges as ANC president, could then take over the running of the country in time to deliver the state of the nation address next February — that is, unless the ANC unites sufficiently to block any attempt to impeach Ramaphosa, should he decide not to resign. 

These are the scenarios Mbeki urged the party to explore when he warned in recent months that the ANC had not considered what it would do should Phala Phala really bite back at Ramaphosa.  

The tragedy is the panel based its findings on the word of a compromised former spook and MPs with a clear agenda, almost entirely disregarding Ramaphosa’s submission. We are no clearer after the panel’s report about whether the Phala Phala allegations are true or a well-constructed farce. Either way, the implications of the panel’s findings handed over to parliament on Wednesday are set to reverberate in the messy halls of South African politics for years to come.