TALKING TECHNICALS: Looking at recoveries
Speculating on shapes for a bounce in the global economy leads to talk of a ‘swoosh’
Following the crash that occurred through late February and into March, the global markets have staged an impressive recovery off the lows.This has been most evident in the US markets, where the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq have rallied sharply off the lows. Those markets are heavily skewed towards big tech stocks (Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, Google). Those are stocks less affected by the global Covid-19 pandemic than many other companies are, so it makes sense that their share prices have recovered fastest.But questions are being raised about the sustainability of the rally and whether the high valuations on the broader market can be justified. Markets are battling with the unknowns of whether the economy will have a V-shaped recovery, a U-shaped recovery, a W-shaped recovery or an L-shaped recession.In a bid to get away from the economic alphabet soup, a new shape has been mentioned: the "swoosh" recovery, as in the Nike tick. It implies a sharp economic drop, followed by a slo...
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