“How do you envisage a post-Cyril scenario?” a senior ANC member asked me recently. I asked if he meant in five years. “No,” he said. “Sooner.”

I was befuddled why someone who knows the inner workings of the ANC was contemplating President Cyril Ramaphosa not making it through his first term. Politics is brutal, but even Jacob Zuma and the Gupta ensemble lasted nine years.

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