Watching for fallout
Donald Trump’s trade war will affect how — and where — wise investors put their money, writes Johann Barnard
By the midpoint of 2018, investors would have been justified in feeling ill at ease. The expected boon to the economy from President Cyril Ramaphosa’s business-friendly overtures had failed to materialise, leading the SA Reserve Bank to revise its growth forecast to a mere 1.2%.Though we’ve become accustomed to living in a low-growth environment, global markets have offered some hope of above-inflation returns. But that may now be under threat due to the trade war that the US has unleashed on friends and foes alike.The effect could be sudden and brutal — as was seen in mid-August, when the already under-pressure Turkish lira tanked, leading to a slump in the rand.Investors are therefore justified in feeling skittish about whether and how to bolster their offshore portfolios.Philip Saunders of Investec Asset Management says the next six months will be crucial for settling investors’ nerves about where global markets stand. Key indicators to look out for include a further slip in Chin...
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