Why PGM investors need to brace for more bad news
The upcoming earnings season for miners such as Implats and Amplats is likely to hold a few nasty surprises — but longer term, some analysts are still bullish
Earnings from platinum miners in February will tell the story of last year’s wipeout in share prices. According to RMB Morgan Stanley, earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (ebitda) for the largest players, including Anglo American Platinum (Amplats) and Impala Platinum (Implats), will be 50%-100% lower. Dividends will be cut to “minimal levels” and capital expenditure will be slashed, it said.
The year 2023 was not a good time to be a platinum group metals (PGM) miner. Amplats, Implats and Sibanye-Stillwater shed between 64% and 36% in value as prices for palladium and rhodium cratered. After a hopeful ripple in the palladium price during the first two weeks of January — likely driven by traders covering short positions — another price correction followed. Share prices so far this year have been a continuation of last year’s form, slipping by between 12% and 14%...
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