The idea was simple: short the rand against the lira. It was a trade that became popular in 2017 as South Africa's prospects dimmed and Turkey's looked as if they were improving. Bank of America and JPMorgan Chase were among the Wall Street banks that recommended it to their clients. And for a while, it worked, especially after former president Jacob Zuma fired Pravin Gordhan, his much-respected finance minister, in March. Until a turnaround in South African politics - triggered by Cyril Ramaphosa's election as head of the ANC in December - sent the rand soaring, and concerns over Turkey's widening current-account deficit and worsening international relations pushed the lira the other way. "A lot of investors weren't convinced Ramaphosa would win, plus the lira had been beaten up [in late 2016]," said Kevin Daly, a money manager in London with Aberdeen Standard Investments, which made a small loss on the trade. "So it looked OK. Clearly, it was not a good one in the end."Daly doesn'...
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