GARETH VAN ONSELEN: The ANC’s self-destructive economic paradox
Jacob Zuma has set an inescapable trap for the next ANC president, writes Gareth van Onselen
The Treasury’s pitiful projected growth target for SA in 2017 is 1.3%. Even then, Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan says the Treasury, "tends to be a little optimistic" when it comes to such forecasts. He is right too; the Treasury’s projection has been ahead of actual growth every year since 2012. Certainly it is a far cry off the 5.4% the National Development Plan had projected for 2017. So many of SA’s problems can be attributed to the lack of economic growth. It is the king of crises, and many others are in constant contention for that particular throne. And so much, everything perhaps, relies on growth. In order to hit the deficit projection target in the medium term, growth targets must be hit in turn. Miss those and the deficit will grow. If it grows too big devaluation is risked. It is a paradox. SA’s tax base, tiny and reliant on a minute number of actual individual personal income tax payers, is on the verge of having what little life remains in it snuffed out entirely. The ...
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