The ANC is a duck. On the surface, it glides upstream against a stiff current towards the SA elections with a measure of well-bred elegance. But under the water there is frantic, desperate activity. You can tell by looking at what the party is doing, not what it is saying — and what it is doing reveals that the ANC knows it is in a fight.

Every poll of voting intention reveals a reason to worry for the party. As is traditional in SA elections, it is projecting confidence and has the swagger of a winner. But poll after poll tells the same tale: the party will lose its overall majority in the May 29 national election even if, as is to be expected, the shambolic but vast yellow election machine can crank up to full power over the coming weeks, driving a polling surge in its favour as the election date nears...

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