GARETH VAN ONSELEN: Why 51% in Gauteng is going to be difficult for the ANC
The higher the turnout on the day, the more likely it is the ANC has succeeded and reinvigorated its supporters; the lower the turnout, the bigger the ANC’s problems will be
What follows is an attempt to sketch in general terms how many votes the ANC would need in Gauteng to secure 51% in the province on May 8, and what some of the considerable obstacles in the way of it achieving that are. Here are the key background statistics from the last election: 2014 All Gauteng registered voters: 6,063,739 2014 Total Gauteng votes cast [provincial ballot]: 4,424,424 2014 Gauteng turnout [provincial ballot]: 72.965% 2014 ANC votes [provincial ballot]: 2,348,564 for 53.59% As of March 19, the Electoral Commission of SA (IEC) had a total of 6,379,311 voters registered in Gauteng. That number will probably change a small bit, with late registrations, but not by much. Using it we can generate a number of turnout scenarios and see how many votes, for each scenario, the ANC would need to get to 51%. The first thing one needs to do is work out what kind of turnout scenarios are likely. Here is the turnout percentage, on the Gauteng provincial ballot, for the past four p...
Would you like to comment on this article?
Sign up (it's quick and free) or sign in now.
Please read our Comment Policy before commenting.
Subscribe now to unlock this article.
Support BusinessLIVE’s award-winning journalism for R129 per month (digital access only).
There’s never been a more important time to support independent journalism in SA. Our subscription packages now offer an ad-free experience for readers.
Cancel anytime.
Questions? Email helpdesk@businesslive.co.za or call 0860 52 52 00. Got a subscription voucher? Redeem it now.