As 2017 unfolds and South Africans mull over the country’s economic prospects for the year, the interaction of positive and negative factors still yields one dominant characteristic: uncertainty. "You’ve got to expect the unexpected" is the mantra inherited from 2016, when a series of roller-coaster political and economic events shaped much of the national mood. The uncertainty surrounding the outcome of the ratings agency assessments of SA in 2016 encapsulated the factors that were identified in a tumultuous economic and political landscape. But is the worst over now? The balance between hopes and fears in 2017 remains complex and insecure. The ratings agencies have rightly given SA a breathing space in which to show whether real progress will be made in 2017 in the particular areas of economic and political concern to them. But their narratives must be interpreted as friendly warnings, rather than as reprieves. It is unlikely that, in the absence of tangible policy progress, SA wi...

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