German Chancellor Angela Merkel may be the anchor that has held the European project firm through a decade of crises, yet it is not her fight for re-election next year that is keeping investors awake at night. That honour goes to France. Voters will choose new leaders in the Netherlands, then France and Germany over the next 12 months — with Italy and Greece conceivably also triggering snap elections. Amid this unprecedented concentration of major ballots, it is the low-probability, high-impact prospect of Marine Le Pen entering the Elysee in Paris that is of most concern to five fund managers contacted for this article. As 2016 closes with the shock of a terror attack in Berlin and officials preparing to negotiate Britain’s exit from the European Union, the French nationalist has the potential to make the next year even more tumultuous for Europe than the last. Le Pen is running second in the polls and has tapped into anger over immigration and the lacklustre income growth that is ...
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