Trump retains big lead in Iowa poll for Republican nomination

Des Moines, Iowa — A keenly awaited poll set the tone for a final full day of campaigning in ice-cold Iowa on Sunday, with Donald Trump maintaining a big lead and Nikki Haley overtaking Ron DeSantis for second place in the Republican presidential race.

The Des Moines Register/NBC News poll released late on Saturday gave Trump 48%, three percentage points down on his December poll lead. Former South Carolina governor Haley was second at 20%, up four points, followed by Florida governor DeSantis with 16%, down three points.

The poll’s organisers say they provide an accurate snapshot of the mood of Iowa voters. The survey indicates that Trump is poised to do well in Monday’s caucuses, the first voting contest on the road to the presidential election in November.

A victory would be a big step for Trump, 77, towards securing the Republican nomination to face Democratic incumbent, Joe Biden, 81, in a rematch of their 2020 battle. It would be evidence that many Republicans are willing to look past Trump’s mounting legal problems and inflammatory rhetoric.

Trump had planned a Sunday rally in Indianola, a suburb of the capital Des Moines, but weather forced him to cancel one in the city of Cherokee. The former president cancelled two events on Saturday, appearing in the evening on a campaign live stream.

“We are leading by a lot in all the polls and you have to get out,” Trump told his supporters. “We need to send a message most importantly for November.”

DeSantis and Haley, who was Trump’s UN ambassador, both need to do well enough in Iowa to give them some momentum for the next contest, in New Hampshire on January 23.

The DeSantis campaign predicted a strong performance on Monday night, despite the slip in the widely watched poll.

“Winning campaigns don’t rely on public data. Most importantly, no-one has worked harder and is better organised than Ron DeSantis,” said spokesman Andrew Romeo.

Their battle increasingly bitter, Haley and DeSantis begin Sunday in Dubuque in the east of the state near the Mississippi River, followed by another DeSantis event around 500km away in Sioux City.

From 7pm local time, Iowans will gather for two hours in school gymnasiums, bars and other locations to debate the Republican candidates before ranking them in order of preference.

Results are typically announced within a few hours.

With temperatures plunging, one question facing the candidates was whether their supporters are motivated enough to show up to caucus. Forecasters predict the coldest Iowa caucus night yet at minus 30°C.

DeSantis, speaking at an event in West Des Moines on Saturday, urged people to make the effort.

“It’s not going to be pleasant,” he said. “But if you’re willing to go out there and you’re willing to fight for me … then as president I’ll be fighting for you for the next eight years.”

Voters like Michelle Mahoney, a 58-year-old businesswoman from West Des Moines, gave hope to the Trump challengers.

She said she voted for Trump twice but finds the former president divisive and plans to caucus for either Haley or DeSantis.

“I’d be thrilled if we could have DeSantis or Haley,” she said at a DeSantis campaign event.

Mahoney likes DeSantis’s military service and says his leadership during Hurricane Ian in 2022 was “fabulous”. She views Haley as a unifier.

Trump, president from 2017 to 2021, is doing well despite many issues. He still claims his 2020 loss to Biden was due to widespread fraud and vows that if re-elected he will punish his political enemies, introduce new tariffs and end the Ukraine-Russia war in 24 hours, without saying how, according to his own comments, those of his campaign and media reports.

He has drawn criticism for increasingly authoritarian language that has echoes of Nazi rhetoric, including comments that undocumented immigrants were “poisoning the blood of our country”.

Trump has used charges of unlawfully trying to overturn his 2020 election loss to fund-raise and boost his support among Republican voters and elsewhere, and claim a “witch hunt” as he protests his innocence.

He faces four cases, setting the unprecedented prospect of a president being convicted or even serving from behind bars, with the courts almost certainly weighing in at every stage.

DeSantis, who tacked to the right of Trump especially on issues such as education and LGBTQ rights, has staked a huge amount on a strong performance in Iowa. His associates say he needs to finish at least second.

Reuters