A comprehensive analysis of public sector pay in last week’s medium-term budget documents provides useful context to the conflictual public sector pay talks, with protests due next week.

The public sector unions have gone back on their earlier 6.5% demand and now want 10% increases. The government has said it will implement a 3% increase for the 2022/2023 fiscal year plus a cash gratuity, which finance minister Enoch Godongwana told journalists last week was worth a further 4.5% — so 7.5% in total. The minister has held back from pencilling in an increase for the next fiscal year, so as not to pre-empt the wage negotiations. All of this had been agreed in talks and at the recent public sector summit, he said last week. He had to pencil something into the budget: 3.3% is the number...

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