ZAMANI SAUL: Africa is little more than a pawn in the shifting world order

This year has been punctuated by global events that are key in understanding the shifting world order, including the Russia-Ukraine conflict that started in 2022 and dragged on into 2023.

We all know by now that the West mobilised in support of Ukraine, which it considers an innocent victim of crude Russian aggression. On the other hand, the Global South in particular looks at Russia’s act as a challenge to the post-World War 2 order. In this perspective Russia is a disrupter of an oppressive and uneven world order designed to oppress and exploit the Global South. 

All of this is taking place in a global environment where for the first time since World War 2 there is a relative decline in US dominance in real and concrete terms. The decline is accelerated by the rise of China, prompting many scholars to talk of “China’s century”.

Anxiety about the shift in the world order has triggered an intensification of the US-China strategic rivalry, which evokes strong impulses of regionalism and protectionism. Regionalism can take the form of consolidation of trade by regional blocks (ASEAN, EU, Brics, Africa and so on) or policies that encourage production by neighbours. 

For example, in 2019 China’s share of car parts imported into the US fell 2.2% and the share coming from Mexico and Canada rose 2.8%. In machinery, the share of Chinese components fell 10%, while that of the US, Mexico and Canada rose 2.5%.

Protectionism is the introduction of industrial policies to encourage production at home. Many countries are starting to retreat from the “free market” beliefs they once espoused, introducing subsidies and policies to block imports to protect domestic companies.

In pursuit of its dominance the US invests billions of dollars into subsidies for semiconductor manufacture and electric cars. On the other hand, China invests billions of dollars in artificial intelligence (AI), fifth generation (5G) mobile communications and quantum computing.

This fast-paced competition has already produced signs of interruption of global supply chain expansion, compounded by the sanctions imposed on Russia, which was trading with 11 of the top 20 rich countries. Regionalism, protectionism and sanctions slow down globalisation, and sadly they are now part of the arsenals of the competing global powers. 

All of these developments illustrate that the world is on the cusp of a loose multipolarity. The prospect of a new world order and its implications get country leaders scrambling on the international front.

In February the 36th ordinary session of the assembly of the AU took place in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. The objective of the AU is to make Africa an integrated, prosperous and peaceful continent that represents a dynamic force in the global arena. The dawn of the new world order was the foremost concern of the continent’s leaders as they engaged in accelerating the implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) to integrate African economies and create a strong regional bloc.

The Group of Seven (G7) annual summit hosted by Japan in the main committed to strengthening co-operation between members, supporting Ukraine and developing an approach to China. The G7 was followed by the 15th Brics summit in SA, which looked into the possibility of the dedollarisation of trade and strengthened the call for reform of global governance.

This call and an increased pace of implementation of the UN sustainable development goals rang loud at the 78th session of the UN General Assembly in New York. This was in the wake of the Brics bloc expanding its membership to include two more African countries, one country from Latin America and three countries from the Middle East.

The expanded Brics+ group of countries are desperate for a change of the current world order. For them it is not adequately representative and is an unjust postwar relic. Conversely, the G7 in the main protects the status quo. 

The Brics summit was followed by the Group of 20 (G20) Summit in New Delhi, India. It is important to highlight that the G20 accounts for 85% of the world’s GDP and 75% of world trade, and comprises the EU and 19 other member countries. The AU has now been invited to be a permanent G20 member. 

The shift in the post-World War 2 status quo seems to have triggered a new scramble for Africa. The first round came after the 1884 Berlin Conference, and as a result by 1914 more than 90% of the continent was under colonial rule. During this scramble unsuspecting African nations were exploited and manipulated by global powers.

The new scramble for Africa is, among other things, derived from the continent having all the minerals the future tech economy needs, and has a “youth bulge” and a growing middle class. With this new scramble for Africa the question is: what is Africa’s agenda? 

US-China rivalry has raised the geopolitical stakes, and this offers Africa many opportunities. But these can be exploited only if the continent has collective agency. Such agency can be achieved only if Africa remains true to its commitment to integrate the continent’s economy.

Trade among African countries is a mere 14% of the global total. Moreover, the colonial debris of dividing the continent into anglophone, Lusophone and francophone countries still shapes the attitudes and defines the behaviours of many African leaders.

The fragmented African response to the Russia-Ukraine conflict and diverse responses to the military coups that seem to have engulfed West Africa is a major concern. What Africa presents is a divided continent with no collective agency to engage with the seismic changes to the world order.

In this volatile, uncertain, chaotic and ambiguous world Africa must be seized with four critical questions:

• What must define the strategic alignment in the US-China strategic rivalry?

• What strategies should be developed to mitigate the slowdown in globalisation?

• How does Africa intend to diversify its supply chain and derisk the continent from US/China rivalry? and

• What form of multilateralism should underpin the new world order?

Without collective agency of thinking and working together, African countries risk being put on auction as appendages and pawns of the new dominant powers in the unfolding geopolitical landscape. Taking membership of the G20 and the increased representation of a divided Africa into Brics+, with no collective agency, is like a horse being invited to the dinner table by the rider.

Africa needs collective agency to define where the continent fits into the new global order and what is in the collective interest of Africans. Multipolarity seems irreversible, and Africa must fight hard for an equitable world order. Without an equitable multipolarity another century of historical injustices could befall the continent. 

• Dr Saul is ANC Northern Cape provincial chair.