LUNGILE MASHELE: There are no Zorros to save us from load-shedding

In a press conference held in August 1983, Thomas Sankara said: “It’s really a pity that there are observers who view political events like comic strips. There has to be a Zorro, there has to be a star. No, the problem of Upper Volta is more serious than that. It was a grave mistake to have looked for a man, a star, at all costs, to the point of creating one, that is, to the point of attributing the ownership of the event to captain Sankara, who must have been the brains.” 

I was reminded of this quote as I watched various quarters claim victory for the reduced load-shedding by wanting to attribute this “win” to a singular event or to a hero. Eskom’s fleet doesn’t care about elections or who the minister is, it only cares about engineering. I caution because in trying to find a hero, we have forgotten that the electricity system is at the mercy of internal and external factors while being controlled by the system operator on a minute-by-minute basis. There are numerous factors that contribute to the electricity scenario.  

Eskom said it would use diesel for its open-cycle gas turbines to reduce load-shedding and estimated an average load factor of 12%. However, the load factor since April is an average of 24%. Eskom is using a significant amount of diesel to prevent heightened load-shedding.

Eskom’s winter tariffs for energy-intensive customers are punitive, so there is reduced industrial demand. These tariffs can be three or four times more than they are in summer. This is why we experienced very high stages of load-shedding leading up to June. As these customers prepared to reduce demand, they ramped up production during that period. I don’t agree with this method of demand-side management because this reduced output means potential job losses, reduced revenue and lower tax collection, leading to a no- or low-growth economy. 

Eskom rightfully deserves its dues. With the current leadership there has been a return to engineering basics and better project management. The current leadership  has played a vital role in rallying Eskom employees to action. Eskom now boasts two plants operating at an energy availability factor (EAF) of above 95%: Matla and Lethabo. However, the overall plant EAF still hovers at 58% and is slightly worse than it was last June (61%).

The weather gods have certainly been in Eskom’s corner — until this week. Eskom forecast demand of 34GW for the winter period; the July 11 peak evening capacity was 33.9GW. Lower winter temperatures will lead to increased demand and SA edging closer to the 34GW forecast demand, resulting in increased and higher stages of load-shedding.

Eskom has reduced its planned maintenance by almost 50%, freeing up more capacity. It has also had a reduction in unplanned outages because the mechanics of coal-fired plants generally work better in winter when ambient temperatures are lower.

The only reprieve from load-shedding in the short to medium term is an improvement in Eskom’s EAF by a return of the three units at Kusile and one unit each at Koeberg and Medupi. This will give us at least 4,170MW nominal capacity, which is equivalent to four stages of load-shedding. 

However, as Eskom continues to decommission its coal fleet, a long-term plan is required from the much-anticipated Integrated Resource Plan (IRP). The revised IRP is expected to include the 2019 IRP as well as additional capacity. If rumours are true, it will include a significant portion of renewables, gas for flexibility as well as nuclear for zero emission firm capacity.

The problem with a Zorro is that when things don’t work out, we also blame them for a multitude of issues — we call for their heads without understanding the complexity of the problem or their span of control. The bitter truth is that heroes are crafted in the dead of night by PR teams and their media allies. Over the years we’ve seen many drink from the poisoned chalice of their self-importance. But one thing is certain, there are no heroes when it comes to load-shedding.   

• Mashele is an independent energy economist.