THE debate about SA’s 2016/17 summer crop production has returned to the top of the agenda as we enter the new production season. Normally, different organisations make different projections, based on assumptions about the future. Output bottomed out in 2015/16 due to drought, so the outlook for the next production season is more positive, particularly for maize. The Bureau for Food and Agricultural Policy recently estimated SA’s 2016/17 maize production at 12.3-million tonnes, while the International Grains Council’s estimate is 12.9-million tonnes and that of the US Department of Agriculture is 13-million tonnes. All these estimates suggest that SA’s maize production could fully recover from this season’s harvest of 7.3-million tonnes. This means that the country, which has annual consumption of 10.5-million tonnes, could again be a net exporter. However, all these estimates are underpinned by the assumption that weather conditions could improve. In the past few months, weather fo...

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