Fitch’s research arm, BMI, believes SA has done enough to get improved trade terms under the African Growth & Opportunity Act (Agoa), which it expects to be extended and modified before its expiry in September 2025. But it warns that the deal might be stillborn if Donald Trump is elected US president.

The research think-tank said in a note it assigns a 65% probability that Agoa will not only be renewed but modified to the benefit of SA’s exports, saying a renewal of 10-20 years is likely, as it provides a long enough time frame to foster stability in trade...

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