How politics and protectionism could derail commodities markets this year
Singapore — Watch out for the unexpected in commodities in 2017. Barclays said raw materials markets from energy to metals face the high likelihood of disruptions, giving a laundry list of possible threats including a default by Venezuela, riots in Chile and a trade war with China. "The new politics of populism and protectionist trade policies have the potential to disrupt global supply and demand assumptions for various commodities," analysts including Michael Cohen and Dane Davis wrote in a January 5 report. "We see risks skewed to the upside in 2017, based on a high likelihood of disruption risk." Commodities advanced in 2016 to post the first annual gain since 2010 as energy markets rebounded and investors reacted to unexpected political events including Donald Trump’s election win in the US and Britain’s vote to quit the EU. Barclays said that the markets will surprise in some fashion this year, and the bank’s analysis illustrated the key point that politics are likely to matte...
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