The Trump trade is not an anomaly when you look at previous market rallies after populist politicians took power, according to research at the University of Bonn. Moritz Schularick, an economics professor at the German institution, told a conference in Frankfurt on Tuesday that his study of 27 comparable episodes in the past century shows that stocks and, to a lesser extent, bonds, tend to benefit. His research encompasses the political ascension of Juan Peron in 1940s Argentina to the three victories of Italy’s Silvio Berlusconi, to the election of current US President Donald Trump. "There is surprisingly little evidence that populists are bad for markets," Schularick told the event organised by the European Association for Banking and Financial History, and Allianz Global Investors. "The contrary seems often to be the case." Schularick defines populists as charismatic, confrontational politicians who claim to speak for "the people" against the elites, often pursuing protectionist ...
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