ISAAH MHLANGA: When assessing the future, the trend is your friend
The trend is clear: the growth in the economy has been weakening since the recovery from Covid in 2021
17 March 2024 - 07:32
Technocrats and market watchers, including myself, have a liking for accuracy to the fourth decimal place, which makes sense when dealing with currencies and trades of a couple of billion.
However, that level of accuracy when applied to the macroeconomy is unhelpful as a gauge of where the economy is, where it's headed and what the implications are for various policy decisions. At worst, a focus on the decimal points can lead to a wrong diagnosis of where the economy is headed, thus potentially leading to incorrect action with negative consequences...
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