Social media’s role in elections

Social media plays an important role in tracking consumer sentiment – and according to media analytics firm BrandsEye should have been studied more intensively by SA’s political parties ahead of the local government elections to avoid any surprises.

Final results illustrated a noticeable shift away from the ANC in a number of vital metros, says political analyst and journalist Stef Terblanche, and there is speculation that heeding the conversations and trends that were made evident on social media platforms could have enabled all political parties to engage more meaningfully with voters.

“Instead of mining more effectively into what ordinary voters were thinking and saying, and reacting accordingly to pre-emptively arrest negative trends, political leaders spent more time attacking each other on Twitter and Facebook,” says Terblanche. He adds that just as British politicians completely missed the predictive power of social media around Brexit, so too it seems did some South African politicians in last week’s local government elections.

Social media data analysed in the run-up to the elections correctly identified voting trends – particularly the fact that no party would crack the 50% mark in Tshwane, Johannesburg or Nelson Mandela Bay and that the only party to do so would be the DA in Cape Town.

It also indicated that conversations that South Africans were having contained critical insights. For instance, says Terblanche, positive comments aimed at the DA around its successful governance of Cape Town and the Western Cape, helped the DA increase its majority in that region – and in other regions where the focus was on the DA’s Western Cape track record, the DA received a greater number of votes. Likewise, where there was significant mention on social media of corruption in government, the ANC lost support. “This is about the clearest advance warning one can expect of how the actual voting will go on election day,” says Terblanche.

What the overall results reveal is that sound governance and delivery is critical to winning over voters. The key issues raised on social media should also dictate the roadmap for political parties to focus on moving forward: end corruption, stop racism, create jobs, speed up delivery, and run all SA’s cities based on the Cape Town model.

“It’s not too late for political parties to take serious note of the views expressed by their supporters and opponents on social media when they now start an uncertain period of negotiations around forming coalition governments. To see what ordinary voters expect from their parties on this score, watch this space…and social media platforms,” Terblanche advises.

The big take-out: Social media has been proven to work as an effective litmus test of popular sentiment – and SA’s political parties should have taken greater heed of issues concerning voters ahead of the recent municipal election.