Another testosterone and ego-driven world leader gambles with world peace. Russia is known for its chess players. We now see a high-stakes chess match played by the Russian president on the international stage, televised into homes across the globe.
What is at stake here are Vladimir Putin’s ego and macho image, his dwindling popularity in Russia and his determination to regain some of the territory and influence of the former Soviet Union.
Putin’s frustration with the new order created after the break-up of the Soviet Union reminds me of Germany’s frustration with the arrangements after the World War 1. His strategy of weakening the unity within Nato and looking for cracks in the alliance has been ongoing for years.
Putin has now decided to step up his game. He gambled and clearly did not expect the growing Nato unity in reaction to his moves on Ukraine. His recognition of the independence of the two breakaway regions in Ukraine is very provocative.
This could be the minimum aim he had in mind all the time with this game he is playing. That would improve his position and pave the way for Russian troops to move into regions that are still part of Ukraine.
This move constitutes less than an invasion, but whether it would be provocative enough for Nato to take military action is doubtful. There is already talk of mere economic sanctions, and I do not expect more than that.
That is surely also Putin’s calculation. If his strategy is successful, it will strengthen his position to achieve his final aim of getting his claws into the rest of Ukraine.
Dawie Jacobs
Sterrewag
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