WATCH: SA’s long road to energy reform

As the country grapples with another week of load-shedding, Eskom’s worst-case scenario modelling for energy availability factors at its ageing coal plants is coming to pass, highlighting the urgency with which the country needs to move on the long and winding road to total energy market reform.

Late on August 26, the National Electricity Regulator of SA (Nersa) asked for public comment on three section 34 determinations made by mineral resources and energy minister Gwede Mantashe, which the minister sent to Nersa for concurrence.

The first one is for 14,791MW of solar, wind and storage capacity to be procured. A second is for 1,000MW from biomass and landfill projects. The third is for 3,000MW of gas.

This is a huge announcement. It more than doubles the total megawatts in procurement, pushing the total to more than 33,000MW of capacity that will be opened for bids, and in due course connected to the grid.

Murmurings ahead of the medium-term budget policy statement are also that the Treasury will assume a portion of Eskom’s debt. All the while, Eskom’s energy availability factor (EAF) declines and serious concerns are being raised about whether the Koeberg 20 year life extension target date of 2024 will be achieved.

To talk about this, Michael Avery is joined by Grove Steyn, MD of Meridian Economics; Miriam Altman, director at Altman Advisory and professor of 4IR Practice at the University of Johannesburg; and Mark Swilling, professor at the Centre for Sustainability Transitions at Stellenbosch University