Another precipice?
If Pravin goes ...
SA could be tipped into a deep and lengthy recession should finance minister Pravin Gordhan be axed
If finance minister Pravin Gordhan is ousted to make way for a more pliable appointee it could precipitate a severe economic crisis and provoke an intense backlash from civil society. The unanimous view of 10 leading economists polled by the Financial Mail is that, should Gordhan be replaced by a less credible candidate, the rand would weaken sharply, interest rate hikes would be firmly back on the table, a rapid downgrade to junk would be almost certain and SA’s nascent growth recovery would be wiped out. “Confidence is already depressed and private investment has been contracting for some time,” says Old Mutual Investment chief economist Rian le Roux. “The prospect of a slumping rand, likely rate hikes, fiscal profligacy and a general sense that SA is firmly on the road to an economic crisis ... may well cause a renewed confidence dive. “In short, it could trigger a full-blown crisis; but the credibility of the new minister will be the determining factor.” The survey consensus is ...
Would you like to comment on this article?
Sign up (it's quick and free) or sign in now.
Please read our Comment Policy before commenting.
Subscribe now to unlock this article.
Support BusinessLIVE’s award-winning journalism for R129 per month (digital access only).
There’s never been a more important time to support independent journalism in SA. Our subscription packages now offer an ad-free experience for readers.
Cancel anytime.
Questions? Email helpdesk@businesslive.co.za or call 0860 52 52 00. Got a subscription voucher? Redeem it now.