NEWS FROM THE FUTURE: Self-sufficient America retreats

Dateline: April 2032

Over the past decade we have witnessed a fundamental change in the world economic order, particularly when we consider trade between the US and the rest of the world. Developed markets such as Japan and Italy are approaching peak consumption, with stable or declining populations, while China still manufactures more goods than its domestic economy can absorb.

The US used to depend on imports, but now, excluding Canada and Mexico, imports from the rest of the world account for only 4% of GDP. And exports of food, oil, gas and manufactured goods have shot up.

“Made in the USA” is once again a cool label on anything from truck tyres to machine tools to children’s toys, and North America is mostly self-sufficient. The adage that stuff was designed in Ireland, made in China, and bought by Americans no longer holds. Exponential increases in shipping costs and the need for resilient supply chains have changed the game.

In the past decade, US technology innovation has blossomed on many fronts, including space travel, microchip fabrication and synthetic food production. Together with advances in artificial intelligence and smart infrastructure — the internet of everything — and a growing, educated workforce, the domestic economy is roaring along. The almighty dollar is as strong as ever.

So, while the US has withdrawn from active participation in many theatres and spheres of influence, its technological and economic success remains the envy of the rest of the world. The US just does not need them so much, and global businesses that thrived on US consumer demand have to reinvent themselves.

• Published on April 21 2022

Making America make again

Going back to the basics of building things

Dateline: May 1 2025

It has taken five long years to climb out of the hole blown in the global economy by the viral pandemic of the early ’20s, but now business is busy again. And making things is part of the new usual.

For the past 20 years, innovation has been driven by tech and scaled by globalisation. “Designed in Silicon Valley and mass-produced in China” was the mantra for success. One only has to look at the exponential growth of the iPhone for proof that the strategy worked.

Until it didn’t. Just-in-time manufacturing, bespoke configurations and integrated, optimised, least-cost supply chains were efficient, but fragile, brittle even. When a global pandemic tested its resilience, the system failed, spectacularly. Tech gurus lamented that the US had no medicines, masks or medical devices to tackle the virus — or even the factories to make them. The whole economic system was too lean, too focused on streamlined efficiency, too vulnerable to disruption.

The same could be said for Britain and most of the EU. Most of the actual making of things was done in Asia, from Vietnam to Malaysia, and India too. Everything from chemicals to computers, and life-saving gear from simple masks to complex ventilators, were all outsourced. The old economies were built on innovation and consumption, with a big manufacturing gap in the middle.

Business new usual is different. Innovation means finding ways to meet customer needs and then making the things that do that, not just providing a platform or service. Remember 3D printers? They have given way to automated digital fabricators, sometimes called robofabbers. Giga-sized factories are great for standardised products, but smaller, more agile production lines are plugging the gaps, building the new maker economy.

Going back to the basics of building things is rebuilding the global economic system, trading finished goods in both directions, and building resilience. It’s the new formula for success.

• Published on April 30 2020

• Despite appearances to the contrary, Futureworld cannot and does not predict the future. The Mindbullets scenarios are fictitious and designed purely to explore possible futures, and challenge and stimulate strategic thinking.