There has been much chatter that, to get better outcomes in advance of the general election, the government would adjust expenditure higher and the fiscal trajectory lower. This budget shows that there will be little election-related spending by the state other than the adjustments that were made in the medium-term budget policy statement (MTBPS) in favour of the maintenance of the social relief of distress grant. This is encouraging.

The minister of finance announced a budget that was mostly in line with MTBPS estimates. This despite the financial boost from the use of the Gold & Foreign Exchange Contingency Reserve Account (GFECRA) balances at the Reserve Bank, which some had feared would be an incentive for another spending spree. To the extent that this budget does not include material deterioration in fiscal metrics, it has gone counter to the worst of some analysts’ fears. The market has responded accordingly. ..

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