One of the byproducts of a crisis is the narrowing of perspective. If you pan out and take a broader view of perhaps 20 or 30 years, any contemporary condition assumes a different character. For the ANC, there are forces at play on the organisation, the consequences of which are likely to be fully felt only in the next decade or so. The party appears blind to them. With the ANC having just concluded its policy conference, now is as good a time as any to identify those macro forces, if one is to understand the party’s potential future.Underpinned by policies like cadre deployment and at the height of its power, the depth and breadth of its influence was hegemonic. The party sought to bring all arms of the state directly and indirectly under its influence, and its agenda, built upon the amorphous idea of "transformation", was omnipresent.The DA is now the epitome of a sophisticated political machine, comparable with the most advanced parties in the world. SA is urbanising rapidly. A n...

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