The next interest rate cut will happen between 3.21pm and 3.26pm on a Thursday. How can I be so specific? Monetary policy committee meetings at the Reserve Bank take place every two months, between a Tuesday and a Thursday. It's when the governor and his advisers consider a mountain of often contradictory information in a bid to fulfil their mandate, which is to ensure price stability, or, in other words, keep inflation under control. And the timing is an average of the duration of governor Lesetja Kganyago's previous rates pronouncement media briefings. You want a date? That's much harder. Could be as soon as the third quarter. Maybe even August. True to the nature of economics , it depends on a range of factors - most domestic, nearly all political. This week's data supports the view of a rate cut by August. Inflation at 6.3% looks like it's on a downward trajectory after peaking at 6.7%. Inflation is likely to start falling quite quickly provided the rand remains stronger and pol...
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