Markets continue to grossly underestimate political risk and its macro implications in South Africa in our view. However, today’s news that Pravin Gordhan has been issued with a formal summons to answer charges of fraud is only a small cog in a much larger and existential succession battle within the ANC that will continue until the end of 2017 – damping investor confidence and growth.The “war” has again come to the surface with the National Prosecuting Authority (NPA) summoning Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan for fraud alleged to have occurred while he was SARS Commissioner.In a detailed press conference Director of National Prosecutions, Shaun Abrahams, who is viewed as close to President Zuma, laid out the case against Pravin Gordhan related to fraudulent granting of early retirement to SARS employees and stated that the case will move forwards with a summons to be charged on 2 November (just after the MTBPS on the 26 October).However, much of the press conference centred on the ...

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